🏈 CFB AI — Week 7 Lock Favorites

2026 Season · SP+ & EPA model vs market · Sunday, October 18 2026 • 4:12 AM ET
📊 Results Tracker →

🔒 Lock Favorites

🔐 STRONG LOCK
South Florida -20.5
#132 Kent State @ #68 South Florida
🕒 Sat 7:00 PM
Win prob 86% · model by 20 · ML -1450
🔐 STRONG LOCK
Temple -17.5
#138 Charlotte @ #99 Temple
🕒 Sat 1:00 PM
Win prob 86% · model by 20 · ML -1350
🔐 STRONG LOCK
Miami -20.5
#53 Florida State @ #4 Miami
🕒 Sat 7:00 PM
Win prob 85% · model by 19 · ML -1600
🔐 STRONG LOCK
Utah -15.5
#7 Utah @ #84 Colorado
🕒 Sat 10:15 PM
Win prob 84% · model by 18 · ML -800
🔐 STRONG LOCK
Oregon State -18.5
#111 Washington State @ #51 Oregon State
🕒 Sat 6:00 PM
Win prob 84% · model by 18 · ML -1000
🔐 STRONG LOCK
Georgia -19.5
#31 Auburn @ #2 Georgia
🕒 Sat 3:30 PM
Win prob 82% · model by 17 · ML -1450
✅ LOCK
Texas Tech -16.5
#59 Arizona State @ #10 Texas Tech
🕒 Sat 3:30 PM
Win prob 81% · model by 16 · ML -800
✅ LOCK
New Mexico -14.5
#29 New Mexico @ #116 Hawai'i
🕒 Sat 10:30 PM
Win prob 80% · model by 15 · ML -675
✅ LOCK
Miami (OH) -9.5
#131 Akron @ #98 Miami (OH)
🕒 Sat 3:30 PM
Win prob 79% · model by 14 · ML -355
✅ LOCK
Louisiana Tech -13.5
#96 Louisiana Tech @ #137 UL Monroe
🕒 Sat 8:00 PM
Win prob 78% · model by 14 · ML -575
✅ LOCK
James Madison -7.5
#91 Georgia State @ #40 James Madison
🕒 Sat 12:00 PM
Win prob 77% · model by 13 · ML -355
✅ LOCK
Ohio -17.5
#101 Ohio @ #135 Sacramento State
🕒 Sat 10:00 PM
Win prob 75% · model by 12 · ML -950

Full Board — 59 games

TimeMatchupVegasModel EdgeGradeSidePickML Value
Sat 12:00 PM #28 Mississippi State @ #9 LSU -17.5 +8.3 -8.5 💪 STRONG DOG Mississippi State +17.5 Mississippi State (+625) · +18.2%
Sat 7:30 PM #3 Notre Dame @ #11 BYU +10.5 -2.6 +7.9 💪 STRONG DOG BYU +10.5 BYU (+320) · +20.4%
Thu 8:00 PM #103 Colorado State @ #70 Texas State -15.5 +7.6 -7.7 💪 STRONG DOG Colorado State +15.5 Colorado State (+490) · +16.5%
Sat 1:00 PM #106 Massachusetts @ #123 Buffalo -6.5 -0.9 -7.4 💪 STRONG DOG Massachusetts +6.5 Massachusetts (+205) · +19.3%
Sat 12:00 PM #91 Georgia State @ #40 James Madison -7.5 +13.3 +5.8 ✅ LOCK FAV James Madison -7.5 —
Sat 7:30 PM #24 Louisville @ #72 Syracuse +14.5 -9.3 +5.1 ✅ LEAN DOG Syracuse +14.5 Syracuse (+455) · +12.0%
Sat 3:30 PM #131 Akron @ #98 Miami (OH) -9.5 +14.4 +4.9 ✅ LOCK FAV Miami (OH) -9.5 —
Sat 10:00 PM #101 Ohio @ #135 Sacramento State +17.5 -12.2 +4.9 👀 SLIGHT DOG Sacramento State +17.5 Sacramento State (+625) · +11.0%
Sat 3:30 PM #8 Alabama @ #15 Tennessee +7.5 -3 +4.5 👀 SLIGHT DOG Tennessee +7.5 Tennessee (+250) · +14.6%
Sat 7:30 PM #34 Wisconsin @ #18 UCLA -1.5 +5.8 +4.3 👀 SLIGHT FAV UCLA -1.5 UCLA (-122) · +7.9%
Sat 12:00 PM #1 Ohio State @ #5 Indiana +3 +1 +4 👀 SLIGHT DOG Indiana +3 Indiana (+120) · +6.8%
Sat 12:00 PM #44 Virginia @ #26 SMU -10 +6.1 -3.9 👀 SLIGHT DOG Virginia +10 Virginia (+285) · +10.4%
Sat 12:00 PM #55 Cincinnati @ #73 West Virginia -1.5 -2.4 -3.9 👀 SLIGHT DOG Cincinnati +1.5 Cincinnati (+102) · +5.9%
Sat 12:00 PM #17 Northwestern @ #77 Michigan State +7.5 -11 -3.5 👀 SLIGHT FAV Northwestern -7.5 —
Sat 7:00 PM #89 Nevada @ #43 North Dakota State -14.5 +11 -3.5 👀 SLIGHT DOG Nevada +14.5 Nevada (+500) · +10.3%
Sat 7:30 PM #46 Kentucky @ #30 Oklahoma -7 +3.5 -3.5 👀 SLIGHT DOG Kentucky +7 Kentucky (+220) · +10.8%
Sat 3:30 PM #74 UNLV @ #63 Air Force -1.5 +4.9 +3.4 👀 SLIGHT FAV Air Force -1.5 Air Force (-105) · +9.8%
Sat 3:30 PM #133 Northern Illinois @ #122 Wyoming -7 +10.3 +3.3 👀 SLIGHT FAV Wyoming -7 —
Tue 8:00 PM #95 Florida International @ #84 Jacksonville State -3 +6.2 +3.2 👀 SLIGHT FAV Jacksonville State -3 Jacksonville State (-142) · +5.0%
Sat 12:00 PM #34 Pittsburgh @ #92 Boston College +6.5 -9.5 -3 👀 SLIGHT FAV Pittsburgh -6.5 —
Sat 3:30 PM #82 Toledo @ #113 Eastern Michigan +7.5 -4.5 +3 👀 SLIGHT DOG Eastern Michigan +7.5 Eastern Michigan (+235) · +10.1%
Fri 7:30 PM #48 Memphis @ #102 Tulane +6.5 -9.4 -2.9 — — —
Fri 8:00 PM #51 Washington @ #62 Purdue -3 +0.1 -2.9 — — Washington (+130) · +6.2%
Sat 12:00 PM #50 Kansas @ #31 Kansas State -3 +5.9 +2.9 — — —
Sat 3:30 PM #56 North Carolina @ #45 Duke -3 +5.9 +2.9 — — —
Sat 10:15 PM #7 Utah @ #84 Colorado +15.5 -18.3 -2.7 — — —
Sat 1:00 PM #138 Charlotte @ #99 Temple -17.5 +20.3 +2.6 — — —
Sat 12:00 PM #31 Florida @ #6 Texas -13.5 +11 -2.5 — — Florida (+400) · +6.9%
Sat 3:30 PM #31 Auburn @ #2 Georgia -19.5 +16.7 -2.5 — — Auburn (+850) · +7.4%
Sat 5:00 PM #100 Troy @ #83 Louisiana -3 +5.3 +2.3 — — —
Sat 8:00 PM #70 Navy @ #67 UTSA -5.5 +3.2 -2.3 — — Navy (+180) · +7.1%
Sat 3:30 PM #13 Missouri @ #16 Ole Miss -4 +2 -2 — — Missouri (+154) · +6.1%
Sat 10:30 PM #58 Fresno State @ #109 San Diego State +6.5 -8.5 -2 — — —
Wed 7:30 PM #107 Kennesaw State @ #129 Missouri State +2.5 -4.4 -1.9 — — —
Sat 3:30 PM #38 Penn State @ #23 Michigan -6 +4.1 -1.9 — — Penn State (+190) · +6.4%
Sat 7:00 PM #41 TCU @ #27 Baylor -3.5 +5.2 +1.7 — — —
Sat 12:30 PM #94 Rutgers @ #81 Maryland -5.5 +3.9 -1.6 — — Rutgers (+180) · +5.6%
Sat 11:00 PM #14 Nebraska @ #12 Oregon -6.5 +4.9 -1.6 — — —
Sat 7:00 PM #53 Florida State @ #4 Miami -20.5 +18.9 -1.4 — — Florida State (+900) · +5.2%
Wed 8:00 PM #117 Western Kentucky @ #125 Sam Houston +1.5 -0.3 +1.2 — — —
Sat 10:30 PM #34 Wake Forest @ #87 California +10 -8.8 +1.2 — — California (+310) · +6.7%
Sat 7:30 PM #22 Oklahoma State @ #19 Houston -4 +5.1 +1.1 — — —
Sat 10:30 PM #29 New Mexico @ #116 Hawai'i +14.5 -15.4 -0.9 — — —
Sat 12:00 PM #136 Ball State @ #127 Bowling Green -6 +6.7 +0.7 — — —
Sat 4:30 PM #93 Tulsa @ #120 Rice +3.5 -4.2 -0.7 — — —
Fri 8:00 PM #97 App State @ #110 Coastal Carolina +1.5 -0.9 +0.6 — — —
Sat 3:30 PM #59 Arizona State @ #10 Texas Tech -16.5 +15.9 -0.6 — — —
Sat 9:00 PM #114 San José State @ #134 UTEP +6.5 -7.1 -0.6 — — —
Thu 7:30 PM #90 Georgia Southern @ #108 Old Dominion +3 -3.5 -0.5 — — —
Sat 3:30 PM #64 Georgia Tech @ #39 Virginia Tech -8.5 +8 -0.5 — — Georgia Tech (+280) · +6.3%
Sat 7:00 PM #84 Arkansas @ #65 Vanderbilt -5.5 +5.1 -0.4 — — —
Tue 7:00 PM #118 Delaware @ #129 Middle Tennessee +1.5 -1.2 +0.3 — — —
Sat 12:00 PM #69 Florida Atlantic @ #74 Army -2.5 +2.3 -0.2 — — —
Sat 6:00 PM #111 Washington State @ #51 Oregon State -18.5 +18.3 -0.2 — — —
Sat 7:00 PM #104 Arkansas State @ #128 Southern Miss +5.5 -5.7 -0.2 — — —
Sat 8:00 PM #96 Louisiana Tech @ #137 UL Monroe +13.5 -13.7 -0.2 — — —
Thu 7:30 PM #78 East Carolina @ #115 UAB +5.5 -5.6 -0.1 — — —
Sat 1:30 PM #88 Western Michigan @ #126 Central Michigan +7.5 -7.6 -0.1 — — —
Sat 7:00 PM #132 Kent State @ #68 South Florida -20.5 +20.4 -0.1 — — —